Without Pressing a Button
July 17th, 2008 by Wil Robinson
The nuclear showdown between Iran and the U.S./Israel is often seen through the lens of the Shi’a emphasis on martyrdom. Yet we cannot move forward in this crisis assuming that it is merely a matter of “Will they?” or “Won’t they?” It may not matter if they push the button - having the button may be enough.
A penchant for honoring those that sacrifice their own lives for a holy cause has a historical context in Shi’a Islam, and rightfully (though, I think, disproportionately) the hawks in Israel and Washington are concerned. They see Iran’s quest for nuclear power as a means for the hardliners in Tehran to destroy Israel - even if retaliation means their own national suicide.
But we must separate Tehran’s saber-rattling and threats from their actions, and consider the wider implications of a nuclear-armed Iran. Ephraim Sneh, a former Israeli general and politician, notes that “Iran would be in a position to destroy the Zionist dream without even pressing a button.” It may sound like hyping the threat - more fear-mongering in the so-called “war on terror”; but there is some truth in this statement.
Ahmedinejad has said he aims to “wipe Israel off the map.” Many assume this means another holocaust, but there is a difference between wiping Israelis off the face of the earth and wiping the nation-state of Israel from a map. Throw in Ahmedinejad’s suggestions that Israelis be forcibly emigrated to Alaska or Germany, and it could appear he merely wants the nation-state of Israel to cease to exist, returning the land to Palestinians. Conclusion: the collapse of a state, rather than murder, may be the goal.
Bring in Sneh’s comment about destruction without even pressing a button. If Iran has a legitimate threat of nuclear war at its fingertips, it can effectively blackmail Israel. Moreover, Israeli citizens would feel very uncomfortable living under the threat of nuclear annihilation. The Israeli government is concerned this may “trigger an exodus of the educated elite that could spell disaster for the country, both economically and culturally.”
Imagine a scenario whereby Israelis with the financial ability simply leave. Unwilling to live with the threat of nuclear war, they immigrate to the U.S., Europe, or elsewhere so that their children might grow up without fear. Likely the only people who would remain are those who don’t have the money or education to begin a new life in New York, London, or Paris.
A country as small as Israel would be devastated by the loss of their best and brightest. Politicians would govern in absentia. Businesses would fail. Professors would find other employment in Europe or America. Doctors, lawyers, and musicians would find places to work that aren’t being threatened by religiously-motivated zealots like Ahmedinejad and the mullahs of Iran.
All that would be left of Israel would be those least able to defend themselves, with a failing economy and a shrinking defense force. Eventually, it just may “wipe Israel off the map.” The political entity that is Israel may cease to exist as we know it.
And back in Tehran: mission accomplished. Without pressing a button.
It’s a convoluted scenario that requires many assumptions, and there is no practical basis to estimate the reaction of the Israeli public to a nuclear-armed Iran. Americans didn’t flee when the Soviets gained the ability to end the world. Floridians didn’t move north when missiles were stationed in Cuba (at least I don’t think they did - it would be interesting to see any available statistics).
Of course, the Soviet Union did not have a history of martyrdom and fervent religiosity that may exist in Iran. Looking back, we might be convinced now that neither the U.S. nor the Soviet Union was ever serious about using nuclear weapons. But the passage of time has a way of blurring the past and extricating emotions. At the time we were never sure the theory of mutually assured destruction was working. How many Americans in the 1960s really believed the Soviets were not going to start a nuclear war?
As long as Iran continues to threaten Israel, and Israel continues to threaten Iran (and implement a system of apartheid on the Palestinians), all these points are moot. Since we cannot be sure that the theory of mutually assured destruction will work in this conflict, we need alternatives. Which leaves diplomacy as the best and only option. Finding ways to address the grievances of both sides can create a new framework for a world in which nuclear weapons are a reality.
We must find ways to remove the very factors that motivate hatred. Apartheid in Gaza and the West Bank must end. Rhetorical bluster and denying the mass-murder of 6+ million Jews must end. This cannot be accomplished by military maneuvers in the Persian Gulf, Holocaust-denial conferences, air strikes against nuclear facilities, photo-shopping video of missile tests, or covert operations meant to create civil war. These are issues that can only be addressed with communication.
If mutually assured destruction cannot work, perhaps mutually assured co-existence will.
Tags: covert war, wmd, media, shia, Israel
Where to start?……….. I don’t know if Iran has nuclear weapon ambitions or not; but I DO know this: They’d be fools if they didn’t. They are surrounded by nuclear armed states: Israel; Pakistan; India; United States (Iraq). Nuclear weapons are a deterent. The only country that was ever crazy enough to use them offensively was the U.S., obliterating Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
As for Ahmadinejad, you are perpetuating the mythical Zionist/Neocon mistranslations. Ahmadinejad has NEVER said he wants to ‘wipe Israel off of the map’. What he HAS said is he wants to put an end to the Zionist regime. Not everyone in Israel is a Zionist. The Orthodox Jews in Israel have as much dislike for the Zionists, as you and I have for the Fascist American Neocons. Just because we say we want to put an end to the Neocon regime here, does not translate as ‘wiping America off of the map’.
The Persians historicly have had no great hatred of Jews. As a matter of fact, when Nebuchanezzar destroyed Jerusalem almost 2,600 years ago, it was the Persians who gave the Jews refuge in their land. Although it has recently dwindled some, Iran has always had a sizeable Jewish population, which has lived in peaceful co-existence with the Persians since the exhile forced by Nebuchanezzar.
History also shows Iran (Persia) to be a defensive nation, not an aggressively offensive one.
The Zionists harp the same tune against Iran, that the Bush/Neocons harped against Iraq. Irregardless of what Israel’s and Iran’s ambitions or motivations are, the bottom line is this: We have no business meddling in the affairs of the Region. Water seeks it’s own level. The radical Muslims have made it clear from day one; they want us off of their sovereign lands, and out of their affairs.
Let’s swap shoes for a minute. It would be a terrible and horrible thing for the people of the ME to want to spread their 5,000 year history of governance globally; yet it is somehow noble and justifiable for us to do the same thing with our 232 year experiment.
I guess I must have missed it, but when did God die and leave His powers to the United States?
NOTE: This comment has nothing to do with the above post.
@Wil Robinson: I came across an article in the Christian Science Monitor that I think you might be interested in (http://www.csmonitor.com/2008/0721/p09s02-coop.html) following our discussion on the West’s inability to “see the person behind the Burqa” several weeks ago.
Thanks for some good posts,
~T. Greer
T. Greer–
Thanks for an excellent link. An interesting piece, and the ending line leaves you with something to think about for sure.
BT–
Ahmedinejad DID say “wipe Israel off the map,” but this would be very different if he had said “wipe Jews off the earth” or “Israel off the earth.” Indeed, wiping “Israel off the MAP” is exactly what you allude to - the idea that a political entity should cease to exist, but the people do not necessarily have to be killed. Which leads me to my post about what Iran’s true intentions are…they may be able to eliminate the state of Israel without committing one murder.